{"id":233,"date":"2023-10-04T01:51:17","date_gmt":"2023-10-04T01:51:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/runcalendar.com.au\/blog\/?p=233"},"modified":"2024-07-24T04:54:59","modified_gmt":"2024-07-24T04:54:59","slug":"predicting-marathon-time","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/runcalendar.com.au\/blog\/predicting-marathon-time","title":{"rendered":"How to predict your marathon time?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Predicting a <a href=\"\/marathons\">marathon<\/a> time is not straightforward, as it depends on numerous factors, including your training, experience, health, age, race conditions, and other variables. However, here you&#8217;ll find some general methods to predict your marathon time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>American Engineer and marathon runner <strong><em>Pete Riegel<\/em><\/strong> conducted some research and created a formula that has become somewhat of a standard for calculating race times. It has been widely used for over 20 years and stood the test of time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p>The formula is:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><code>T2 = T1 x ( D2 \/ D1 )<sup>1.06 <\/sup><\/code><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Where:<br><code>T1<\/code> = Time for a known event<br>D1 = the distance for a known event<br><code>D2<\/code> = the distance to predict a time for<br><code>T2<\/code> = the forecast time for <code>D2<\/code>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As an example, if you have recently run <strong>5km <\/strong>in <strong>25 <\/strong>minutes and you wanted to calculate your likely <strong><a href=\"\/10k\">10km<\/a> <\/strong>time, this would be the formula:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">25 x ( 10 \/ 5 ) <sup>1.06 <\/sup> = 52:07<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are a few assumptions Pete Riegel&#8217;s formula makes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>It presumes you have done the right level of training. ie. a 5km runner won&#8217;t get a good result for a marathon if they haven&#8217;t put in the relevant training<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It presumes you don&#8217;t have a natural gift for one type of race (speed or endurance)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It is only applicable for races within 5 mins to 4 hours.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>This formula is more skewed towards experienced runners than those attempting a race for the first time, so bear that in mind. Obviously, there will also be other variables such as the weather, terrain, and how well-prepared or recovered you are, but at least this gives you a good starting point. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yasso 800&#8217;s<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Another method you should consider when predicting your marathon times are <em>Yasso 800&#8217;s<\/em>. Yasso 800&#8217;s are a popular track workout created by Bart Yasso, the former chief running officer at <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.runnersworld.com\/\">Runner&#8217;s World<\/a><\/em> magazine. The theory behind the workout is that running 10 x 800m intervals with a short recovery run in between will gauge whether you can run a <a href=\"https:\/\/runcalendar.com.au\/blog\/marathon-pace-chart\/\">marathon at that target pace<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How to run Yasso 800&#8217;s:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>First, calculate your target time. If your goal marathon time is 4 hours, you should run each rep in 4 minutes. If it&#8217;s 3 hours 30, run your reps at 3:30.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>First <a href=\"https:\/\/runcalendar.com.au\/blog\/how-to-properly-warm-up-before-a-run\/\">warm-up<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Run an 800m interval at your target time <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Do an easy recovery run within the same target time<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Repeat 9 times<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cool down and stretch<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Note this is a pretty challenging workout. The first time you attempt this, you may want to reduce the number of reps to 3 or 4 and slowly work up to 10 reps. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hopefully, some of the techniques above will help you predict your marathon time. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Predicting a <a href=\"\/marathons\">marathon<\/a> time is not straightforward, as it depends on numerous factors, including your training, experience, health, age, race conditions, and other variables. However, here you&#8217;ll find some general methods to predict your marathon time.<\/p>\n<p>American Engineer and marathon runner <strong><em>Pete Riegel<\/em><\/strong> conducted some research and created a formula that has become somewhat of a standard for calculating race times. It has been widely used for over 20 years and stood the test of time.<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/runcalendar.com.au\/blog\/predicting-marathon-time\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":253,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-233","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-running"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/runcalendar.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/233","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/runcalendar.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/runcalendar.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/runcalendar.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/runcalendar.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=233"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/runcalendar.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/233\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":426,"href":"https:\/\/runcalendar.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/233\/revisions\/426"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/runcalendar.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/253"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/runcalendar.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=233"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/runcalendar.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=233"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/runcalendar.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=233"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}